November 9, 2000

California Congressional races - 6 win - 6 lose.

By Patrick Osio, Jr.

The Presidential campaign of 2000 is one for the history books. For sure 50 per cent of the people are happy with the results, and 50 per cent are not. But no longer will anyone be able to say, "my vote doesn't count." An expression and affirmation widely said and hopefully acknowledged by the young people in our nation.

This commentary will address the California Congressional Districts and those elections.

The Census Bureaus' 1999 estimated California population is 43,604,737 broken down:

26,306,164 Non-Hispanic white - 60%

10,459,616 Hispanic - 24%

4,038,309 Asian & Pacific Islander - 9.3%

2,487,006 Black

   313,642 American Indian & Alaska Native - .07%

Since 1990, the non-Hispanic white population has grown by 8.4%; the Hispanic population by 35.8%; the Asian and Pacific Islander by 36.8%; the Black population by 7.7%; and the American Indian and Alaska Native by 9.4%.

California has 52 Congressional Districts. The November 7, 2000 elections just concluded Hispanics picked up one new seat to bring the total California Congressional Hispanic representatives to 6 seats or 11.5% of the total. Yet Hispanics represent 24% of the total population.

Clearly population gains has not related to political gains. Part of the problem is that high population is not indicative of the number of citizens eligible to vote. So that in some regions showing high Latino population numbers do not take into account the actual of citizens eligible to vote.

Another missing link is the age factor. Total population figures do not indicate the under 18 years of age ineligible voters.

But the worse part has been the low percentages of registered voters, and the low turn out on Election Day by those registered to vote. Gains have been made in the last couple of years, and successful registration campaigns are proving successful, but Latinos still lag far behind in both registration and voting.

Conventional thinking has been that Blacks turn out to vote in small numbers, but this is not so. Their turn out rate is slightly below those of non-Hispanic whites. It is the Latinos and Asians who are the lowest even where they are dominant in population. Though Asians are the lowest in numbers.

In some areas in California another factor diminishing greater Latino representation is the voter turn out by non-Latinos. For instance in San Francisco Gays voter turnout is nearly 100 per cent, so they're voting numbers can double the voting population of other minority groups.

So it is not uncommon that in predominant Latino population Congressional Districts a relatively small non-Latino or even Gay population can be the dominant political force.

Another force is the fierce loyalty to the Democratic Party by a majority of Latinos. This prevents challenging Democrat incumbent Congress representatives in a district even when the Latino voting population could easily displace the incumbent. In such cases, Latinos seem to be satisfied to wait for the incumbent to retire before seeking the open seat. And when a Latino does challenge a Democrat incumbent the community turns against the challenger even if he/she is a qualified Democrat.

In District 11 (mid state) a Latino Republican, Tom Santos, challenged the incumbent Democrat and took a drubbing - 58% to 38%. The District is 48 per cent Democrat, and 41 per cent Republican. The Latino population is 21 per cent, but only 13 per cent are registered voters. Santos' losing margin illustrates lack of support by his fellow Latinos.

District 12 (San Francisco Peninsula) is 54% Democrat and 27% Republican. Here the minority population is 44 per cent with Latinos being 14 per cent, but only 9 per cent registered. Here another Republican Latino faced an incumbent Democrat and took an even worse beating than Santos - 74% to 21%.

District 20 was reapportioned by the court to gather as many Latinos as possible, resulting in a 55 per cent Latino population in the District. Latinos and other minorities make up 67 per cent of the Districts population. Republican Rick Rodriguez challenged Democrat incumbent Cal Dooley and was beaten 53% to 45%. This District demonstrates how the majority Latino population will not challenge an incumbent Democrat, and will not support a Latino from another party who does. Additionally, Latino registration is 34%, which is higher than in many other Districts, but not what it can be. However, will it make any difference unless Latino Democrats challenge their party's incumbent?

District 21 is 39% Democrat and 49% Republican so it seems that it was OK for a Latino Democrat, Pete Martinez, to challenge the Republican incumbent, William Thomas, only to take a major beating - 72% to 25%. The District is made up of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties staunchly conservative Republicans.

District 30 made up of downtown Los Angeles and surrounding areas has a Latino population of more than 61 per cent, and an overall minority population of 85 per cent. Democrats number 61% and Republicans 22%. Even though Latinos make up only 34% of registered voters, it would be difficult to not have a Latino elected from here. So Xavier Becera, a well-qualified Latino Democrat took on Republican Tony Goss and gave him a major drubbing - 83% to 12%.

District 31 was an easy win for Latina, Hilda Solis. She ran unopposed for the open seat left vacant by another Latino, Matthew Martinez. The District is heavily Democrat 58% to 27% Republican. The Latino population is 58 per cent, but with a significant (and growing) Latino voter registration of 41%. The District covers the San Gabriel Valley, Alhambra, Monterey Park, El Monte and Azusa.

District 33 is 66% Democrat and 18% Republican with a Latino population of 84 per cent, and voter registration of 48%. While registration may seem high, it is not when compared to the Latino population, but this is one of those areas where it is believed there live a large segment of Latino non-citizens. Here Lucille Roybal-Allard the incumbent Democrat dished out another sound beating to Republican Wayne Miller - 85% to 11%.

District 34 is another heavy Latino District with a population of 60 per cent, but a voter registration of 45%. Here two Latinos fought it out. Incumbent Democrat Grace Napolitano versus Republican Robert Canales. Napolitano won with a sizable margin -71% to 23%.

District 41 is a Republican stronghold even though betters than one third of its population is Latino, but only 26% are registered. Republicans out number Democrats 48% to 39%. Here Latino Democrat Rodolfo Favila took on Republican incumbent, Gary Miller losing to him 59% to 38%.

District 42 with a 51% Democrats to 37% Republican registration has been a safe haven for the Democratic part for some time. The incumbent George Brown died on July 15, 1999, opening the door for a Latino to win the nomination. Joe Baca did just that, and faced Republican Eli Pirozzi beating him 60% to 35%. Republicans heavily contest the District. Latinos make up 34% of the population with less than 25% of them registered. It is to the credit of Joe Baca that he was able to win this fiercely contested seat.

District 46 a one-time conservative Republican enclave turned to Loretta Sanchez when the Democrats took over as the majority. Now the District is 46% Democrat to 40% Republican. Latinos make up 50 per cent of the 64 per cent minority population. Sanchez won national fame when she took on staunch ultra-conservative, Bob Dornan, who many though was unbeatable. When Sanchez won, Dornan challenged the results with accusations of vote fraud. After nearly two years of congressional investigation the findings did not change the results. She defeated Dornan in his attempt to win back his old seat. Now Sanchez seems to be well entrenched and her latest victory demonstrates. She beat Republican Gloria Tuchman 59% to 36%.

Thus Latinos in California wind up with 6 Congressional seats, one more than before, but still 6 loses is too many.

It seems that efforts to convince Latino non-citizens to become citizens, when qualified, voter registration campaigns and get out the vote are beginning to bear fruit. But must continue with renewed vigor.

What may also be needed, is to lose the fear of waiting for same party long entrenched incumbents to retire (or die) before mounting a challenge.

It may also be effective that when Latino Republicans run against a well-entrenched non-Latino incumbent, more support should be given that candidate.